We waited until the end of the day to publish this news bulletin as we wanted to see who our new prime minister was before we pushed send. We had alternative headlines ready to go:
It's Liz Truss: Oh
It's Rishi Sunak: Oh
Personally, we would rather train Eric Pickles towards international pole vault success than take the job Ms Truss now has, but - hey - she appears not to be short of handouts. First in her in-tray is going to be the news, published at the weekend, that business leaders predict the UK's economy will fall into recession before the end of the year with inflation rising to 14 per cent. It seems to all be about inflation eroding the value of household incomes and suppressing demand; but it also has a tad to do with energy and commodity pricing and war in Europe and the general sense that prices across the economy are expected to rise at three times the rate of wages by winter.
The Bank of England expects inflation to peak at just over 13 per cent in October, while analysts at Goldman Sachs have warned the rate could rise as high as 22 per cent when energy bills rise yet again in January.
Some industry leader (let's call him Phil, for that is his name - he works in manufacturing up north and sounds pretty exasperated) said this afternoon: “[Lizz Truss should] ... make policy based on evidence, not headlines. Drop ideas which will hinder industry not help it. And restore clarity and direction to important legislation, like energy changes and the business rates." We in the NTI newsroom are sure that Ms Truss is furiously making notes, as Phil raises some good points.
His fellow corporate leaders are preparing to back Liz Truss after she promised to be a “pro business” prime minister, but have raised concerns over the risk to the economy from unfunded plans to tackle the cost of living crisis. They believe in her clear plans for cuts rather than the “fiddling” with more complicated sets of deductions to offset rising taxes.
Roger Barker is head of policy at the Institute of Directors (Andy knew him when he has a stall on Bermondsey market - he's done well for himself, has Roger), which supports cuts to national insurance, business rates and corporation tax, said: “Business also wants to see the economy carefully managed. These are problematic taxes, but to be credible the Government would need to show what is coming in to fund or replace them.”
Just to be clear, Roger, you want your cake and eat it, right?
With huge thanks to people such as Roger and his mates, the NTI newsroom have written a useful summary to help Liz navigate her first evening in Britain's worst job. It is:
- Cut taxes
- Fund these tax cuts properly
- Don't raise lending
- Cut inflation
- Borrow to get us out of recession
- Don't borrow to get us out of recession
- Lower energy bills
- Reduce Government borrowing
- Sort the NHS
- Stop the train strikes
- Cancel those ridiculous smart motorways
We will have another list for you on Wednesday, Liz. Sleep well.
